Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

The scientific, technological and societal conditions for the end of the COVID-19 crisis

Publication date: 25 Mai 2021 | Report language: EN

The coronavirus pandemic has changed the world as we know it. Europeans and European businesses are finding their resilience tested to the limit. Importantly, for us at EU level, resilience is not only the ability to withstand and cope with challenges but also to learn, transform emerge stronger and “bounce forward” better.

The European Commission commissioned a foresight study to support reflections on the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and facilitate policy discussions on the possible medium-term impacts and related opportunities. The study used the Dynamic Argumentative Delphi method to explore experts’ views on specific statements about how Europe may look in 2023, in domains relating to medicine, public health, and socio-economic conditions. An analysis identified consensus views about the future (predictions that can be taken for granted) as well as divergence of views (where major uncertainties lie).

The key uncertainty identified is the acquired immunity of the population against SARS-CoV-2, modulated by the actions of public decision makers and the level of civic engagement. This fed into the development of five plausible but distinct scenarios as regards the possible state of affairs in Europe in 2023. The scenarios are intended to reveal interdependencies and sensitivities and are not predictions; indeed, it is highly likely that none of these perspectives will quite capture the reality of our world in 2023.

The report concludes with key lessons and implications of these scenarios which are hoped to support policy makers in planning for exiting from the pandemic and economic and societal recovery.