{"id":30414,"date":"2021-06-08T07:48:21","date_gmt":"2021-06-08T07:48:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/technopolis-group.com\/?p=30414"},"modified":"2021-10-20T14:52:24","modified_gmt":"2021-10-20T14:52:24","slug":"from-a-green-and-fair-future-to-civil-unrest-future-scenarios-with-covid-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/technopolis-group.com\/de\/from-a-green-and-fair-future-to-civil-unrest-future-scenarios-with-covid-19\/","title":{"rendered":"From a green and fair future to civil unrest \u2013 future scenarios with COVID-19"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The ongoing pandemic has shattered the relatively high levels of predictability and stability in Europe. Against this backdrop, Technopolis Group has delivered a foresight exercise to explore what life might look like in Europe in 2023.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The aim of this foresight exercise<\/a>, commissioned by the European Commission, was to support policy makers to understand future opportunities and risks to the way we will live in 2023. For this purpose, in the summer of 2020, hundreds of experts working in different fields across Europe were asked to assess and comment on the significance and prospect of different statements about the future. This helped to create not a prediction or alternate realities but plausible situations that policy makers would need to consider so that their actions drive us to a desired future. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technopolis Group created\nfive different plausible scenarios, taking into account technological and\nmedical developments as well as the socio-economic impact of the pandemic. The\ndifferent perspectives ranged from an optimistic much greener and fairer future\nto a rather grim outlook with fractures along social fault lines and civil\nunrest. In a lively meeting of over 100 policy researchers at Technopolis Group\nin March 2021, the question was posed which of the five scenarios is most\nlikely to play out by 2023? Interestingly, the middle-ground scenario that\ndescribed settling into a \u2018new normal\u2019 received the most votes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this timidly optimistic\nscenario, the extraordinary novelties of the pandemic will have become a new\nnormal by 2023. COVID-19 will still be around as a seasonal disease with sporadic\noutbreaks. Physical distancing and regional lockdowns will be enforced whenever\nnecessary. And the crisis will have increased social inequalities and left a\nscar in the fabric of social cohesion. On the upside, partially effective\nvaccines and successful immunisation campaigns will largely stop community\ntransmission and authorities will learn lessons from crisis management and will\nbe better prepared to respond to future risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Settling\ninto the \u201cnew normal\u201d<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

Increased preparedness\nincludes the necessary infrastructure to detect and respond to outbreaks as\nearly as possible, either locally or across borders. This will be accompanied\nby a pan-European emergency response plan which will allow the EU common market\nto open up again. The importance of a robust public health sector will have\nbecome widely accepted, and the role of science in decision-making recognised.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this scenario, however, general\nunemployment will still be higher than pre-pandemic, albeit slowly improving.\nThe sectors which have been among the hardest hit \u2013 culture, travel and\nhospitality \u2013 will likely to have bounced back to some extent by 2023. Even if\nthe pandemic might have impacted our behaviour temporarily, it is unlikely that\na large part of the population will renounce what was inherent to their quality\nof life. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The digital industry will be\namong the \u201cwinners\u201d of the pandemic and is likely to continue growing. Public\nauthorities will invest into providing digital access for more people than ever\nbefore \u2013 be it to access educational programmes online or healthcare from\nremote areas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Minding the\nindividual, not just the big numbers<\/strong><\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

But the pandemic is not only\nimpacting economic sectors but also individuals. Big numbers on how many jobs\nwill be lost or created and how much the GDP will shrink or grow tend to hide\nthe human side of the story behind the statistics. The crisis is already magnifying\nstructural inequalities in our societies and having an impact on mental health\nof communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential of COVID-19 to\ncause rift is already evident. During the first year of the pandemic, incidents\nof domestic violence have increased, women have suffered financially more than\nmen, and ethnic minorities have seen higher infection rates than the general\npopulation. Safer remote working has been easier to access for highly educated\npeople in the service industry than people in manual professions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The\nincreased inequality will also have a delayed and potentially long-lasting\neffect on mental health. While many people learned to cope with periodic lockdowns\nand restricted social lives, those who have been badly hit economically and are\nalready vulnerable are those who are more likely to suffer from diminished mental\nhealth in the future. This includes people whose industries have been shattered\ndespite EU recovery programmes and will need to be retrained to find a new job,\naffecting disproportionately the old and young people.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Reweaving\nthe fabric of our societies<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n\n

The five\nscenarios put forward in the foresight exercise are meant to reveal\ninterdependencies and sensitivities and are not predictions. It is hence likely\nthat none of these perspectives has quite captured the reality of our world in\n2023. But there is one aspect that the experts overwhelmingly expressed and is\npart of several scenarios: it is that the societal rifts will foster widespread\ndisaffection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To reweave\nthe fabric of our society, governments will need to invest in areas where\nlittle to no profits can be made, even when those are not highly innovative products\nin sustainable industry sectors. Investments in public (mental) health\nservices, care and social enterprises have the potential to increase trust in public\nauthorities, strengthen civic support and increase engagement and cohesiveness\n– across nations, regions and generations. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The ongoing pandemic has shattered the relatively high levels of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[233,5],"tags":[],"solution":[112],"sector":[75],"class_list":["post-30414","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-technopolitan-de","category-unkategorisiert","solution-strategic-studies-de","sector-health-life-sciences-de"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nFrom a green and fair future to civil unrest \u2013 future scenarios with COVID-19 - Technopolis Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/technopolis-group.com\/de\/from-a-green-and-fair-future-to-civil-unrest-future-scenarios-with-covid-19\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"de_DE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"From a green and fair future to civil unrest \u2013 future scenarios with COVID-19 - 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