{"id":60981,"date":"2025-05-15T10:12:21","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T10:12:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/technopolis-group.com\/new\/the-council-of-experts-on-climate-change-presents-2025-review-report-emissions-budget-narrowly-met-until-2030-at-risk-thereafter\/"},"modified":"2026-01-23T12:41:20","modified_gmt":"2026-01-23T12:41:20","slug":"the-council-of-experts-on-climate-change-presents-2025-review-report-emissions-budget-narrowly-met-until-2030-at-risk-thereafter","status":"publish","type":"new","link":"https:\/\/technopolis-group.com\/pt-pt\/new\/the-council-of-experts-on-climate-change-presents-2025-review-report-emissions-budget-narrowly-met-until-2030-at-risk-thereafter\/","title":{"rendered":"The Council of Experts on Climate Change presents 2025 review report: emissions budget narrowly met until 2030, at risk thereafter\u00a0"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The Council of Experts on Climate Change has published its new review report of the German greenhouse gas emissions for the Year 2024 and the projection data of 2025. The analysis provides a deep insight into the current state of German climate policy and presents a mixed picture: while the emissions budget up to 2030 is currently being met on paper, there are growing risks to meeting the targets, particularly beyond the year 2030.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2024 emissions data: excedances in transport and buildings sectors<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The Council of Experts has confirmed the emissions figures published by the Federal Environment Agency for the year 2024. Once again, the transport and buildings sectors have exceeded their permitted annual emission levels \u2013 in both cases more significantly than in the previous year. The overall targets up to 2030 are only being met due to a buffer, which resulted in previous years primarily from the COVID-19 pandemic and a weak economic performance.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Projection data underestimate emissions \u2013 budget formally met until 2030<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

According to the current projection data, the emissions budget for the years 2021 to 2030 set out in the Federal Climate Action Act is met, with a buffer of 81 Mt CO\u2082 eq. However, the Expert Council points out that the underlying modelling tends to underestimate actual emissions. The level of underestimation is roughly equivalent to the existing buffer. Formally, there is no breach of the Climate Action Act \u2013 but without the buffer, it would likely occur.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Significant gap in meeting targets from 2030 onwards<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The projection data reveal a widening gap in target achievements from 2030 onwards. Of particular concern is the development in the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector: it is no longer classified as a carbon sink but as a source of emissions \u2013 a trend that, according to forecasts, will continue through 2045 and beyond. The main reason for this is the poor condition of Germany\u2019s forests.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For 2045 \u2013 the target year for German climate neutrality \u2013 the projection data show remaining emissions of 204 Mt CO\u2082 eq. (excluding LULUCF). Including the LULUCF sector, the gap becomes even larger. The goal of climate neutrality would thus be clearly missed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recommendations of the Expert Council: revise target architecture and climate action programme<\/strong>\u00a0<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In light of these findings, the Expert Council calls for:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n