The Council of Experts on Climate Change has published its new review report of the German greenhouse gas emissions for the Year 2024 and the projection data of 2025. The analysis provides a deep insight into the current state of German climate policy and presents a mixed picture: while the emissions budget up to 2030 is currently being met on paper, there are growing risks to meeting the targets, particularly beyond the year 2030.
2024 emissions data: excedances in transport and buildings sectors
The Council of Experts has confirmed the emissions figures published by the Federal Environment Agency for the year 2024. Once again, the transport and buildings sectors have exceeded their permitted annual emission levels – in both cases more significantly than in the previous year. The overall targets up to 2030 are only being met due to a buffer, which resulted in previous years primarily from the COVID-19 pandemic and a weak economic performance.
Projection data underestimate emissions – budget formally met until 2030
According to the current projection data, the emissions budget for the years 2021 to 2030 set out in the Federal Climate Action Act is met, with a buffer of 81 Mt CO₂ eq. However, the Expert Council points out that the underlying modelling tends to underestimate actual emissions. The level of underestimation is roughly equivalent to the existing buffer. Formally, there is no breach of the Climate Action Act – but without the buffer, it would likely occur.
Significant gap in meeting targets from 2030 onwards
The projection data reveal a widening gap in target achievements from 2030 onwards. Of particular concern is the development in the land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector: it is no longer classified as a carbon sink but as a source of emissions – a trend that, according to forecasts, will continue through 2045 and beyond. The main reason for this is the poor condition of Germany’s forests.
For 2045 – the target year for German climate neutrality – the projection data show remaining emissions of 204 Mt CO₂ eq. (excluding LULUCF). Including the LULUCF sector, the gap becomes even larger. The goal of climate neutrality would thus be clearly missed.
Recommendations of the Expert Council: revise target architecture and climate action programme
In light of these findings, the Expert Council calls for:
- Further development of the target architecture in the Climate Action Act, particularly regarding residual emissions and technical sinks
- A long-term strategy for climate neutrality that clearly defines the interaction between LULUCF, residual emissions and negative emissions technologies
- An ambitious Climate Action Programme by March 2026, which not only addresses the current shortfalls up to 2040, but also focuses on achieving long-term climate neutrality by 2045
Coalition agreement fails to provide sufficient impetus claims the Expert Council
A comparison with the current coalition agreement shows, in the view of the Expert Council, that key problem areas – such as the transport and building sector, or carbon sink performance – are not being specifically addressed. The report urges the federal government to close these gaps with the upcoming Climate Action Programme.
The Council of Experts on Climate Change (ERK) is an independent panel of five experts from different disciplines. It was appointed in September 2020 and is mandated by Sections 11 and 12 of the Federal Climate Action Act (KSG). The panel consists of the five members Prof. Dr. Hans-Martin Henning (Chairman), Dr. Brigitte Knopf (Deputy Chair), Prof. Dr. Marc Oliver Bettzüge, Prof. Dr. Thomas Heimer, and Dr. Barbara Schlomann.
The full report and further information are available on the Expert Council on Climate Issues’ website.
